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As for second-seeded Dominic Thiem versus third-seeded Daniil Medvedev: This would seem to be the stuff that tournament dreams are made of. In a just world, this would be the final, but with Djokovic nailing down the number-one seed, this became impossible. So a semi it will have to be—but a legendary one is in the making. The wily and mercurial Medvedev was a finalist at last year’s Open; Thiem has three times been this close to winning a Grand Slam final but, maddeningly, hasn’t yet risen to the occasion. Medvedev has yet to lose a set in Flushing—for reference, the last time a man won the Open without losing a single set was 60 years ago—but seems to have some nagging issues with his shoulder. If he can overcome that, expect five sets of gut-wrenching glory—after which Sunday’s final may be but an afterthought.

From the Serena point of view: Aside from dominating their head-to-head, she’s never lost to Azarenka at a Slam. But the crowd energy that she seems to feed on will obviously be missing—and while her pre-Open playing was wildly inconsistent, her play in Flushing has been something approaching steady. We’re calling this one almost too unstable to predict—though likely a far closer match than the mere numbers and stats would seem to indicate. (Given the way the Open has shaken out so far, though, it might be worth a long shot bet on Brady over Azarenka in the final in straight sets.)

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